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With high schoolers not eligible, NCAA players are the focus of a draft that has no clear-cut top pick

2006 Draft Preview: Who’s Next?

By Scott Wallin
Connecticut's Rudy Gay (Photo Courtesy of Stephen Slade)
Remember those NBA drafts in the early-1990s and the years before when most of the prospects came straight from an American university? Those were the days when there wasn't a flood of high school or international players to consider. Back then, chances were pretty good -- assuming you followed college basketball -- that you had actually seen or at least heard of most of the top players who were heading to the NBA.

It will be throwback time at the June 28 draft, thanks to a down year on international players and a new rule that demands league prospects be a minimum of 19 years old or a year removed from high school in order to be eligible.

Last year's draft had 12 high school seniors declare their professional intentions but the rule change is now keeping the likes of prep phenom Greg Oden (who has committed to play for Ohio State) and as many as a half-dozen others away from NBA employment for at least a year.

The rule isn't popular with prep prospects and others who argue that sports such as baseball, tennis and golf employ athletes 19 and younger, but it seems to have gained support in the college and pro basketball ranks.

"My wish was [that the rule was] 20, but I think 19 will at least send a message to kids to take college as a serious proposition," Lakers Coach Phil Jackson said.

With this year's overseas market widely considered weak, most of the job openings will be claimed by homegrown college players. The overall crop is fairly deep and teams should have a better idea of what they're getting without the gamble of whether a prep or international player is worth their pick.

"I think this draft is a lot better than people thought it would be because the initial reaction when the age limit was put in was 'we're not going to get Greg Oden this year,' " said Tony Mejia, NBA beat writer for CBS SportsLine.com. "And there are another group of kids coming out of high school who would have been lottery picks but they have to go to college now.

Duke's J.J. Redick (Photo Courtesy of Jon Gardiner)
"NBA scouts have a little less room to work with now and they don't have to project quite as much, so you'll probably see guys who are known commodities taken higher than they may have been in the past. A guy like [Duke's JJ] Redick, people will be able to pick him sooner than they have in the past because they don't have to deal with some 17-year-old high school guy who may be the next Tracy McGrady."

Magic Assistant General Manager Dave Twardzik and Co. have done their homework and will be ready when their turn comes with pick No. 11, unless the team strikes some lottery magic and moves up.

Naturally, Twardzik isn't tipping his hand on who the Magic are eyeing but says, regardless, it will be "the best available player" meaning the team's philosophy is to select talent over need.

"If it's a situation we duplicate talent, then so be it," Twardzik said. "You don't compromise getting a great player to fill a need."

Nonetheless, let the speculation begin everywhere else. Mock draft "experts" have the Magic selecting such players as Redick, Washington's Brandon Roy, Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer, Memphis' Rodney Carney or Temple's Mardy Collins.

Mejia doesn't mind joining the mix and throwing his vote toward Roy (6-6/210), who averaged 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists last season. The All-American may be able to step in to replace DeShawn Stevenson if he opts out of his contract or Grant Hill if he continues to battle health issues.

"Brandon Roy is somebody the Magic would probably love because he can play three positions and he can play defense right off the bat," Mejia said. "He's kind of like a supercharged Joey Graham [of Toronto] and he'll probably be a Top 10 pick. He was in [current Knick] Nate Robinson's shadow in Washington so people didn't really know about him until this year.

Washington's Brandon Roy (Photo Courtesy of Mark J. Terrill)
"He can't miss. He's 6-6, can pass, he's a jack-of-all trades. With the way the Magic are constructing, you don't really want someone to come in and immediately want to compete for a job. I think they're pretty well set with what they have coming back. I think getting a guy like that who can come in and plug in a couple of holes is ideal."

Mejia thinks Orlando would be wise to pass on Redick, however. He feels Redick's game doesn't have enough facets to successfully transfer to the NBA.

"There's no question he's a three-point threat but a three-point threat in the NBA is only going to take you so far," Mejia said. "I just think the NBA is too athletic for guys who can't defend and can't create their own shots except for situations where you need a three-pointer with five seconds to go in the quarter or the half."

What is for sure is that nothing's for sure. Twardzik says this year's draft lacks the consensus one or two players like the 2004 version when the Magic -- choosing first -- considered Connecticut's Emeka Okafor before going with prepster Dwight Howard.

"The depth of this year's draft is good but I don't think there's a clear-cut definition of who the top two players will be," Twardzik said. "The year we got Dwight, it was either Dwight or Emeka. If you asked 30 general managers in the league who the top pick would be this year, you might get four to five different names."

Those names likely include: Tyrus Thomas (LSU power forward), LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas power forward), Adam Morrison (Gonzaga small forward), Rudy Gay (Connecticut small forward) and Randy Foye (Villanova point guard). The most coveted international player is Italian 7-footer Andrea Bargnani, who is expected to be chosen early.

But will any of them have a Howard-like effect on a franchise? Twardzik thinks not.

"I don't think you'll see anyone that has the impact of Dwight," he said. "They'll be nice players in the league who will contribute but I don't think there is anyone who can turn a franchise around. I think we'll get a very decent player."

Gonzaga's Adam Morrison (Photo Courtesy of Jeff Green)
Morrison is easily one of the more intriguing and talked-about players. The floppy-haired Gonzaga star seems to have an NBA-ready game but there are health concerns with Morrison, who is diabetic. He won't be the first professional athlete to play with this condition -- former NBA player Chris Dudley and NHL Hall of Famer Bobby Clarke succeeded despite the daily care needed to manage blood-sugar levels.

"The big debate you're going to see in this draft is Adam Morrison's workouts because there are people who genuinely believe that this kid is Larry Bird," Mejia said. "I think you're going to see a lot of concerns about his diabetes diverted by teams but it shouldn't affect him going very early and possibly No. 1."

What this year's draft lacks in high school players, it makes up for in college underclassmen who may be declaring earlier than they should. This "testing of the waters," as Twardzik calls it, isn't necessarily a bad thing, assuming the player doesn't sign with an agent.

Two Memphis players -- former Orlando Edgewater standout Darius Washington Jr. and teammate Shawne Williams -- declared for the draft but have until June 18 to withdraw their names. Twardzik hopes this is the case for their benefit.

"There's no harm in testing the water, that's why it's set up the way it is," Twardzik said. "I just hope they don't handcuff themselves and sign with an agent so they can't go back to school if they don't like where they are.

"They showed some signs of improvement in their games but if they stay in school, there is a physical maturation, an emotional maturation and they're going to get good coaching. It's going to help their games."

This story originally appeared in the June issue of Magic Magazine. Get your favorite Magic fan a subscription to Magic Magazine! To subscribe call 1-877-841-7070 or e-mail subscription.service@skies.com and specify you want Magic Magazine. A one-year subscription is $18.95 and two-year is just $24.95.